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October 18, 2022
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PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Tuesday morning. It’s three weeks until Election Day.
We’re going to focus again today on our recent conversations with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy over what governing would look like in a potential GOP majority.
| → | Debt limit: Let’s start with the most sensitive item House Republicans will have to deal with – the debt limit. The nation’s statutory borrowing cap will need to be lifted at some point in 2023, probably during the second half of the year. |
McCarthy signaled that Republicans would again hold the debt limit up for policy changes.
As we all remember, the debt limit was one of the bruising battles of the Obama presidency under then Speaker John Boehner. The U.S. government’s credit rating was downgraded for the first time ever following that 2011 debacle, but GOP lawmakers apparently are ready to try again in order to force “structural changes” to popular entitlement programs including Social Security and Medicare.
Here’s McCarthy on the debt limit:
We reminded McCarthy that he didn’t pitch these debt limit battles during the Trump era, during which the GOP ran up $7 trillion in new debt in only four years, including pandemic relief funding. Congress raised the debt ceiling three times during Trump’s presidency. Republicans only hold the borrowing cap hostage when Democrats are in the White House. McCarthy countered that President Joe Biden and congressional Democrats have spent too much money, in his view.
We asked McCarthy if he intended to try to reform entitlements as part of the debt ceiling debate. McCarthy said he wouldn’t “predetermine” anything.
The good news for the global economy and the Biden White House is that McCarthy told us that he does believe the debt ceiling needs to be lifted. How both sides get there is the problem.
McCarthy also said that he doesn’t want a government funding fight early in his tenure. “People are going to want to see us accomplish things,” McCarthy told us. “We don’t want to get bogged down.”
| → | Ukraine aid: McCarthy previewed that any request for more Ukraine aid would be more difficult in a House GOP majority. This is something we’ve sensed from our conversations with rank-and-file Republicans during the last few months. The United States has already spent more than $60 billion on economic and military aid since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in late February, funding that has gotten big bipartisan majorities in both chambers. That consensus may be fraying. |
These kinds of comments could prompt the Biden administration to push for a full year of Ukraine aid during the lame duck, should Republicans win control of either chamber on Election Day. McCarthy may privately welcome this, in fact.
| → | Covid funding: McCarthy said plainly he would be opposed to any requests for new Covid funding. |
| → | Immigration: McCarthy is taking a very hard line on immigration policy. The California Republican is opposed to trading a pathway to citizenship or DACA for increased border security. This is the traditional trade that both parties have envisioned for years. Here’s McCarthy: |
Two notes here:
| → | This kind of hawkishness could prompt outside groups to push for an immigration deal in the lame duck. This would likely be a long shot – at best. Hard to see how Republicans would go for that deal having just won an election with an anti-immigration platform. |
| → | While internally popular, McCarthy’s position will cause nervousness in Corporate America. Businesses big and small have said overhauling the nation’s immigration laws is a top priority. |
| → | Ban on stock trading: McCarthy said Republicans would draft a bill to ban stock trading by members of Congress. McCarthy said that he’s opposed to the Democrats’ proposal on this issue. McCarthy also said he wouldn’t buy stocks if he becomes speaker. According to his most recent financial disclosure report, McCarthy owns no individual stocks, only mutual funds. |
| → | Term limits for top committee members: McCarthy said he hasn’t decided whether to push to term limit committee chairs and ranking members as part of the House rules for next year, provided Republicans win. We reported in April McCarthy favored doing so. Republicans have term limits on the top lawmakers on each committee, and Democrats don’t. Here’s what McCarthy told us: |
| → | Motion to vacate: McCarthy is not in favor of weakening the motion to vacate, the process by which the House could remove the speaker. As of now, only the party leaders on both sides can offer a motion to remove the speaker. “I just think it should be a high threshold, people have to be able to govern,” McCarthy said. We’ll see if the right pushes McCarthy on this. But McCarthy doesn’t seem like he’s open to being held hostage on this, as Boehner and Ryan were. “I personally don’t take well to leveraging,” McCarthy told us. |
| → | Unions on Capitol Hill: Unsurprisingly, McCarthy doesn’t approve of Capitol Hill aides unionizing. “I don’t think that’s beneficial,” he said. McCarthy noted that House aides cannot negotiate for health care benefits. Furthermore, McCarthy adds that he worried about the House floor staff being subject to strict time limits if they unionize. Floor staffers often have to work long, long hours, especially when high-profile bills are being debated. |
– Jake Sherman
Tomorrow: Join us on the livestream (in-person RSVPs are full) at 9 a.m. ET for our interview with Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) about mobile technology security and app store legislation. RSVP here!
GOING AFTER THE LEADER
News: House GOP super PAC puts another $4M against DCCC chair
House GOP leaders have spent a good chunk of this cycle saying they could beat Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, the chair of the DCCC.
And now, in the closing weeks of the 2022 campaign, the Congressional Leadership Fund is spending $4 million on New York City broadcast TV against Maloney in their most aggressive effort thus far. This buy is 2,000 gross ratings points during the last three weeks of the race.
The big new ad buy comes on top of the $2 million that the CLF – the House-GOP aligned super PAC – has already reserved in cable buys in this district. Meaning SPM, as he’s known, is facing a $6 million ad blitz, among the toughest for any Democrat.
Due to New York State losing a seat following redistricting, SPM shifted districts this cycle to the new 17th District. This caused fellow Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones to unsuccessfully seek election in a New York City district, which angered some progressives. Now SPM is facing a tough challenge from New York State Assembly Member and GOP consultant Michael Lawler.
CLF has told allies that its internal polling has Maloney’s race against Lawler is within the margin of error.
Here’s the ad that CLF is running. It focuses on crime and bail reform, issues that Lawler has been hitting SPM on.
Maloney insists that Republicans are just wasting their money and he’s going to win:
SPM is referring to a mailer sent to voters that some Black community leaders have denounced as racist in this increasingly bitter race.
According to his campaign, SPM has helped direct $7 million to local police departments while vocally opposing the “Defund the police” movement.
SPM has also hit Lawler on abortion rights, a major issue across the country.
– Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
DOWNTOWN DOWNLOAD
| → | The University of Miami has hired Dentons to “[m]onitor issues related to higher education, federal grants, health care legislation, and immigration.” |
| → | Sazarac, the liquor company, has hired Crosswinds Solutions to lobby on “[f]orestry, white oak regeneration, Farm Bill, White Oak Caucus, Bourbon Caucus, carbon sequestration, Interior Appropriations, Ag Appropriations, HR 2639 Trillion Trees Act.” |
– Jake Sherman
THE CAMPAIGN
| → | The RNC is launching a nationwide tour to drum up support for Republican candidates. The tour will include RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel, NRSC Chair Rick Scott and NRCC Chair Tom Emmer. McDaniel and Scott will be in Tampa and the Miami area today with Florida GOP officials, as well as Reps. María Elvira Salazar and Carlos Giménez. The party leaders go to Georgia and North Carolina Thursday. |
| → | Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) is running a new ad, which portrays a woman getting arrested in front of her family for having an abortion. |
| → | “All units, all units: Reports of an abortion at Central Hospital. Officers needed to detain doctor.” A police officer receives this dispatch in the opening of Wisconsin Democratic Senate candidate Mandela Barnes’ latest ad. |
The Barnes’ spot argues this is the future Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) wants in his bid to criminalize abortions. It’s the latest example of abortion rights messaging in Wisconsin’s competitive Senate race, which Johnson currently leads by a narrow margin in polls.
| → | GOP super PAC Defending Main Street is launching a six-figure ad buy attacking Democratic House candidate Jamie McLeod-Skinner in the tight race for Oregon’s 5th District. |
A new cable, broadcast and digital ad paints McLeod-Skinner as “too toxic” and says she was the “boss from hell” during her time as Phoenix, Ore., city manager.
If you remember, McLeod-Skinner beat Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.) in the district’s Democratic primary this spring. She’s now facing Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer in a seat that the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter labels a Democratic Toss-Up.
| → | Republican Jeremy Shaffer, who’s seeking a toss-up western Pennsylvania House seat, is running an ad where his wife vouches he will “stand up for women’s health care.” |
“Being married to a physician, Jeremy knows the importance of decisions between patients and their doctors,” Stacey Shaffer says in the ad.
The ad makes no direct mention of abortion rights. The DCCC has run ads claiming Shaffer wants to ban abortion and is attempting to tie Shaffer with far-right gubernarorial nominee Doug Mastriano.
Shaffer is running against Democrat Chris Deluzio in retiring Rep. Conor Lamb’s (D-Pa.) seat.
| → | The DCCC is running two new ads in support of Frontline Democratic Rep. Jahana Hayes’ (D-Conn.) reelection campaign. One spot hails Hayes’ work in allowing Medicare to negotiate lower prescription drug prices, while the other criticizes Republican George Logan’s stance on abortion rights. |
| → | Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-Pa.) is airing a new ad highlighting how she helped a local manufacturing plant stay in business. Dean is eyeing the position of House Democratic Caucus vice chair next Congress. |
— Max Cohen and Jake Sherman
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